On 26th August the CPLO and the Hanns Seidel Foundation hosted a roundtable discussion entitled: ‘Post-Election Analysis: Following The Trends’. We invited two guest speakers, Dr Zwelethu Jolobe – senior lecturer in Political Studies at UCT, and Dr Alain Tschudin – executive director of Good Governance Africa. The discussion was well-attended and a crowd of more than 40 participants engaged enthusiastically with the speakers’ analyses of the local election results.
The aim of the roundtable was for the speakers to present quantitative analyses of the trends that emerged from the elections. According to Dr Jolobe, the important battlegrounds in this election were Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay. The strength of the DA, in these three metros, was its ability to get voters out to polling stations, while the ANC had failed to do the same. It was not necessarily the case that ANC supporters had switched to the DA. Additionally, Dr Tschudin stated that most of the electorate do not base their vote on services delivered or economic development, but rather on party loyalty. As a result, the 2011 and 2014 elections suggest that the DA has steadily increased its voter percentage, whereas the ANC is seeing a steady decrease in its share of the vote.
L-R: Dr Zwelethu Jolobe, Fr Peter-John Pearson (Director, CPLO), and Dr Alain Tschudin